Solana vs Ether After ETF Greenlights: What Would It Take For SOL To Lead?

Key Takeaways

• ETH ETFs have opened access, but flows remain cyclical.

• SOL’s plumbing is set: CME futures are live, with options slated for Oct. 13 (pending approval).

• The SEC’s generic standards now allow faster spot-commodity ETP listings beyond BTC and ETH.

• For SOL to outperform ETH, it will need sustained creations, tight hedging, real onchain usage and continued developer momentum.

Introduction

Ether has the head start in the exchange traded fund (ETF) race: Spot Ether ETFs began trading on July 23, 2024, attracting approximately $107 million in first day net inflows and opening a mainstream path for investors through brokers and retirement accounts.

Solana’s market infrastructure is catching up. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched Solana futures on March 17, 2025, with options slated for Oct. 13.

In September 2025, the US Securities and Exchange Commission adopted generic listing standards that streamline how exchanges list spot commodity exchange traded products (ETPs), potentially widening the gate beyond Bitcoin and Ether.

What ETH ETFs changed, and what they did not

Spot Ether ETFs began trading in the US on July 23, 2024. On first day, they recorded approximately $1 billion in trading volume and about $107 million in net inflows, opening a mainstream channel for investors as registered investment advisers (RIAs) and institutions.

Flows since then have been cyclical. Through mid 2025, ETH saw net creations punctuated by outflows. By late August and mid September 2025, reports showed renewed strength, with multi week inflows into Ether products that lifted total crypto assets under management. ETFs improved access, but they did not eliminate market cycles.

At times in 2025, Ether outperformed large cap crypto assets, supported by ETF demand and institutional and treasury accumulation.

One design choice still matters: US ETH ETFs launched without staking, limiting income potential compared with holding native ETH directly. The SEC is reviewing proposals to allow staking, but, as of October 2025, has delayed decisions across multiple issuers. If staking is permitted, even partially, it could shift the trade offs between ETF holdings and direct ownership.

Solana today: usage, growth and risks

In Q2 2025, Solana generated over $271 million in network revenue, marking its third consecutive quarter leading all layer 1 (L1) and layer 2 (L2) chains. In June, data showed Solana matched the combined monthly active addresses of other major L1s and L2s, a sign of usage intensity.

In January 2025, Solana processed $59.2 billion in peer to peer (P2P) stablecoin transfers, a rebound from the lows of late 2024. The supply of USDC on Solana stands at approximately $9.35 billion, while the network’s total stablecoin supply more than doubled in early 2025, climbing from $5.2 billion in January to $11.7 billion in February.

Even so, Ethereum still carried the majority of value moved by stablecoins year to date, roughly 60% by mid 2025, showing Solana’s gains are meaningful but not yet dominant.

Cost and speed remain draws: sub cent fees, 400 millisecond block times and high throughput have made Solana a hub for decentralized exchange (DEX) and perpetual futures activity, and a focal point of 2025’s memecoin boom.

A five hour outage on Feb. 6, 2024, required a coordinated restart and client patch (v1.17.20). Past US SEC complaints have referenced Solana as an unregistered security, a characterization the Solana Foundation disputes.

What a US Solana ETF would likely change

Access and flows: Approval would open SOL to mainstream brokerage and retirement channels used by registered investment advisers (RIAs). That reduces operational friction for allocators and broadens the buyer base beyond crypto native venues.

Market making and hedging: Listed derivatives give authorized participants (APs) and market makers tools to hedge creations and redemptions, as well as to run basis or relative value trades. These mechanics help keep ETF prices close to their NAV and support day one liquidity.

Regulatory runway: The SEC’s generic listing standards widen the path beyond BTC and ETH if sponsors satisfy the rules.

Ex US demand signals: Canada’s 3iQ Solana Staking ETF (TSX: SOLQ) and Europe’s 21Shares Solana Staking ETP (SIX: ASOL) show that regulated investment wrappers for Solana can attract investor interest.

Can SOL actually outperform ETH?

The bull case, 6 to 12 months post approval

A timely US spot SOL ETF with strong early net creations could outpace Ether on total return.

Broader access: RIAs and brokerages gain exposure under the new generic listing standards.

Improved market mechanics: tighter spreads and greater capacity as APs hedge via CME Solana futures and listed options.

The base case

Even if a SOL ETF launches strongly, flows tend to follow risk appetite. Ether keeps an institutional edge due to history, allocator familiarity and ecosystem depth. Relative performance is likely to be choppy.

The bear case

Timelines slipping or eligibility questions under the US SEC framework could dampen expectations. Liquidity may soften, and APs could run smaller books despite available derivatives, limiting creations. In that scenario, Solana would underperform Ether, which already benefits from a more mature distribution.

Some regulators have warned that reduced case by case scrutiny under the generic listing standards adds policy uncertainty for assets beyond Bitcoin and Ether.

Conclusion

Do creations and redemptions show persistent demand? Does CME open interest and options activity deepen liquidity? Do onchain metrics like active users, fee revenue, stablecoin settlement and developer growth hold up beyond speculative bursts? If those needles move together, the odds of SOL outpacing ETH rise.

A Solana ETF would remove an access bottleneck and arrive with market infrastructure than past cycles. Yet Ether has shown it can attract billions through ETFs while anchoring the institutional conversation.

ETH remains the benchmark, and its flows, though cyclical, show staying power. Whether Solana truly outperforms will depend less on hype and more on whether ETF inflows translate into sustained onchain adoption.

FAQs

Will an ETH staking feature inside US ETFs change relative demand?

If the SEC permits staking inside ETH ETFs, even at limited participation, the embedded yield lowers the opportunity cost of holding the fund rather than native ETH. That could support steadier creations and raise the bar for SOL, unless SOL funds pair access with compelling onchain yields elsewhere.

Do CME futures and options materially help day one liquidity for SOL ETFs?

Yes. Futures and listed options let authorized participants hedge creations or redemptions and run basis strategies. Better hedging tightens spreads and encourages deeper market making, which improves primary and secondary market function.

How should allocators weigh stablecoin activity across chains?

Ethereum still accounts for roughly 60% of stablecoin value moved as of mid 2025, while Solana’s share is rising with $59.2 billion in P2P transfers in January and USDC supply near $9.35 billion. Allocators can read this as growth for Solana without claiming that Ethereum’s leadership has been displaced.