Will Bitcoin Price Drop in September?

Key Takeaways

• Historically, September has been one of Bitcoin’s weakest months, with average returns around −3.80% since 2013, raising fears of another seasonal pullback.

• Despite this, analysts argue that the current setup mirrors 2017, when Bitcoin overcame a late-August sell-off to launch into new all-time highs.

• The $105,000–$110,000 support zone could be a launchpad for a major rally, potentially taking Bitcoin above $124,500 within 4–6 weeks.

• A weaker US dollar and the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts could provide strong macroeconomic tailwinds for Bitcoin in September and beyond.

Introduction

Bitcoin enters September with uncertainty clouding the market. The cryptocurrency has opened the month in the red, marking its first downtrend since April, and this has triggered concern among traders and investors about whether the downturn might deepen further. Historically, September has been one of Bitcoin’s weakest months, a period where optimism often fades and the so-called “September Effect” takes hold.

However, this year’s setup is intriguing. While many are bracing for another dip, some analysts believe Bitcoin may buck its usual seasonal pattern and instead prepare for a powerful breakout. With technical indicators flashing bullish divergences, historical parallels to the 2017 cycle, and macroeconomic conditions aligning in Bitcoin’s favor, the stage might be set for a surprise rally.

September Is Usually a Bad Month for Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s track record in September leaves little room for optimism. Since 2013, the digital asset has closed in the red during eight of the past twelve Septembers, with average returns slipping about −3.80%. This consistent underperformance has led many market participants to brand September as a “danger month” for Bitcoin.

The phenomenon is not limited to crypto. Traditional markets also suffer from seasonal weakness during September. The S&P 500 index, for example, has historically delivered average returns of −1.20% in this month since 1928. Market veterans attribute this effect to portfolio rebalancing, profit-taking after summer rallies, and positioning ahead of Q4, when institutional flows tend to dominate.

Given Bitcoin’s correlation with broader risk assets, it often becomes a casualty of this seasonal downturn. Yet, there is a twist: every time Bitcoin has managed to close September in the green since 2013, it was preceded by a rough August sell-off—suggesting that sellers may be front-running the seasonal weakness.

Why a Big September Dump Might Not Happen

Some analysts believe 2025 may break the usual pattern. Analyst Rekt Fencer argues that a “September dump is not coming,” pointing to striking similarities with Bitcoin’s behavior in 2017.

In both cycles, Bitcoin suffered a sharp correction in late August, found support at a crucial zone, and then staged a recovery that eventually turned into a parabolic rally. Back in 2017, that rebound marked the final shakeout before Bitcoin surged to $20,000.

Fast forward to 2025, Bitcoin is once again consolidating near a multimonth base in the $105,000–$110,000 range. This area, which acted as resistance earlier in the year, has now flipped into support—often considered a powerful bullish signal in technical analysis.

Bitcoin Could Retest Its Record High in 4–6 Weeks

The technical structure around Bitcoin suggests growing strength despite recent weakness. One critical indicator is the hidden bullish divergence between price action and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). While Bitcoin’s price has dropped, the RSI has not fallen as sharply, hinting that underlying market momentum is stronger than the chart might suggest.

This divergence signals that buyers are gradually re-entering the market, potentially setting up the conditions for a breakout. Analyst ZYN projects that Bitcoin could push to a fresh all-time high above $124,500 within 4–6 weeks, fueled by this technical setup and growing investor confidence.

A Weaker Dollar Can Help Bitcoin Bulls in September

The macroeconomic backdrop adds another bullish element to Bitcoin’s outlook. Currency traders are increasingly bearish on the US dollar, citing a slowing US economy and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Some analysts forecast that the dollar could slide another 8% this year, with sentiment further weakened by Donald Trump’s criticism of the Fed.

As of Sunday, the 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index (DXY) stood at −0.25, its weakest level in two years. A falling dollar often supports higher Bitcoin prices, as investors seek alternative stores of value and risk assets gain appeal.

Analyst Ash Crypto suggests that upcoming Fed policy will provide a massive liquidity injection into crypto markets:

“The Fed will start the money printers in Q4 of this year. Two rate cuts mean trillions will flow into the crypto market. We are about to enter a parabolic phase where Altcoins will explode 10x -50x.”

Conclusion

While September has historically been a tough month for Bitcoin, 2025 may play out differently. Technical indicators, strong support levels, and parallels to the 2017 cycle suggest that a major sell-off might not materialize this time. Instead, Bitcoin could be gearing up for another push toward new all-time highs, with projections targeting above $124,500 in the next 4–6 weeks.

On the macro side, a weaker US dollar and the possibility of multiple Fed rate cuts could act as powerful tailwinds, funneling liquidity into the crypto sector. While risks remain, the evidence points to September potentially marking the beginning of Bitcoin’s next big leg upward rather than another seasonal slump.

FAQs

Why is September often a bad month for Bitcoin?

Historically, Bitcoin tends to underperform in September, with average returns of −3.80% since 2013. This is partly due to broader seasonal weakness in risk assets, as traders rebalance portfolios and lock in profits after summer rallies.

Could Bitcoin really reach $124,500 in the next 4–6 weeks?

Yes, analysts such as ZYN suggest that technical signals—like the hidden bullish divergence—support a potential rally to new highs above $124,500 in the coming weeks.

How does the US dollar impact Bitcoin’s price?

Bitcoin often moves inversely to the dollar. With the Dollar Index (DXY) correlation at −0.25, a weakening dollar could give Bitcoin a strong boost. Expected Fed rate cuts may accelerate this dynamic.

What happened in 2017 that is relevant now?

In 2017, Bitcoin dropped in late August, stabilized at key support, and then surged to $20,000 by year-end. Analysts note that 2025’s price action looks strikingly similar, suggesting history could repeat.

Should investors worry about a September crash?

While history favors caution, this year’s combination of strong support at $105,000–$110,000, bullish divergences, and macro tailwinds suggests the probability of a severe September drop may be lower than usual.