Will Bitcoin Reach $190K in This Quarter?

Key Takeaways

• Tiger Research forecasts Bitcoin could reach $190,000 in Q3 2025, representing a potential 67% upside, driven by institutional inflows, record global liquidity, and U.S. 401(k) access.

• 401(k) allocations are highlighted as a game-changing factor, potentially unlocking substantial long-term demand for Bitcoin within the U.S. retirement system.

• On-chain metrics suggest short-term corrections remain possible, signaling that volatility should not be underestimated.

• Macro risks, including interest rate policy shifts and geopolitical uncertainty, remain key factors influencing Bitcoin’s trajectory despite long-term optimism.

Introduction

According to Tiger Research, Bitcoin prices could rise to $190,000 in Q3 2025, representing a 67% potential upside. This bullish projection is underpinned by accelerating institutional inflows, record-breaking global liquidity, and expanded access via U.S. 401(k) retirement plans.

However, despite the optimistic outlook, the market is far from risk-free. On-chain indicators are already showing signs of overheating, pointing toward potential short-term corrections. This underscores the importance of caution and disciplined risk management for investors entering or expanding their Bitcoin exposure.

Key Drivers Behind the Bitcoin Q3 2025 Outlook

In its latest valuation report, Tiger Research projected that Bitcoin could surge to $190,000 in Q3 2025, a level that represents about 67% upside compared to current prices.

The firm highlighted three primary catalysts supporting this bullish scenario:

1. Institutional Capital Inflows. Bitcoin is increasingly driven by institutional adoption rather than retail enthusiasm. Hedge funds, family offices, and asset managers are actively accumulating Bitcoin, giving the market a new structural backbone. Tiger Research emphasized, “This dynamic is supported by institutional buying power outstripping retail buying.”

2. Unprecedented Global Liquidity. Global monetary conditions continue to favor risk assets, with abundant liquidity supporting inflows into Bitcoin. This liquidity cycle plays a crucial role in fueling higher valuations.

3. U.S. 401(k) Retirement Accounts. Perhaps the most transformative catalyst, the inclusion of Bitcoin investment options in U.S. 401(k) retirement plans could trigger significant and sustained demand. With trillions of dollars in retirement savings, even a small allocation into Bitcoin represents massive potential inflows over time.

Tiger Research’s valuation framework relies on the Time Value of Money (TVM) model, strengthened by on-chain indicators and macroeconomic data. The report stated,

“Our model suggests a fair value of $190,000 by Q3 if current liquidity and adoption trends persist.”

Risks and Short-Term Corrections

Despite the bullish scenario, Tiger Research cautioned that short-term corrections are highly possible. Bitcoin is currently approaching the $100,000–$107,000 support zone, which coincides with heavy liquidation pressures.

On-chain metrics such as MVRV-Z (Market Value to Realized Value) are also nearing levels associated with overbought conditions. Historically, such signals have preceded market pullbacks.

However, some analysts remain more optimistic. One market observer on X commented,

“We’re not even close to the danger zone yet. People aren’t massively overextended on profits like they were at previous tops. This tells me we’ve got room to run.”

Still, Bitcoin’s path to $190,000 is not isolated from broader global macroeconomic conditions. Changes in interest rate policies, geopolitical tensions, or liquidity shifts could materially impact its price performance. These risks highlight the need for careful portfolio strategies and long-term thinking.

Conclusion

Tiger Research’s forecast presents a highly optimistic roadmap for Bitcoin, with the possibility of reaching $190,000 in Q3 2025. If realized, this would mark a major milestone in Bitcoin’s adoption cycle and reinforce its position as the world’s leading digital asset.

At the same time, the report underscores the reality of market volatility and potential short-term corrections. Investors should balance the upside potential with prudent risk management, as Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to both institutional inflows and global macroeconomic forces.

Ultimately, whether Bitcoin achieves this ambitious milestone will depend on the interplay between institutional demand, liquidity cycles, and external economic variables. The long-term trajectory remains promising, but the road ahead will not be without turbulence.

FAQs

Why is $190,000 the target price for Bitcoin in Q3 2025?

Tiger Research’s model, based on the Time Value of Money (TVM) framework, combined with on-chain data and macroeconomic liquidity trends, projects Bitcoin’s fair value at $190,000 by Q3 2025, assuming current adoption patterns hold.

How important is the 401(k) channel for Bitcoin adoption?

Extremely important. With trillions of dollars in U.S. retirement savings, even a 1–2% allocation into Bitcoin could unlock hundreds of billions in long-term demand, making 401(k) access a true game-changer.

What risks could prevent Bitcoin from reaching $190,000?

Short-term risks include overbought conditions, heavy liquidations, and on-chain pullback signals. Long-term risks center around macroeconomic policy shifts, such as interest rate hikes, geopolitical tensions, or changes in liquidity conditions.

Could Bitcoin drop before reaching $190,000?

Yes. According to BeInCrypto, Bitcoin is currently approaching the $100,000–$107,000 support zone, and indicators like MVRV-Z suggest possible corrections before the next leg upward.

Is Bitcoin still a good long-term investment?

Despite volatility, Bitcoin’s institutional adoption, growing integration into retirement systems, and macro liquidity cycles support a strong long-term outlook. However, investors should remain mindful of risks and avoid overexposure.