What To Expect From XRP in October 2025?

Key Takeaways

• XRP trades within a descending wedge pattern, with $3.02 acting as key resistance; a confirmed breakout could push prices toward $3.61 and challenge all-time highs.

• Institutional inflows of $210 million in September and strong ETF expectations reflect solid confidence in XRP’s long-term trajectory.

• Historically, October averages -4.5% returns for XRP, but evolving regulatory clarity and institutional participation could reshape that narrative in 2025.

Introduction

XRP currently trades within a descending wedge, a pattern typically viewed as bullish since it often precedes breakouts to the upside. As October begins, investors are preparing for a potentially decisive month. Historically, this period has been unkind to XRP holders, yet 2025 brings a markedly different backdrop — one defined by surging institutional inflows, regulatory progress, and mounting anticipation surrounding potential ETF approvals.

XRP Finds Renewed Demand

September proved to be a pivotal month for XRP, revealing the strength of institutional conviction despite market turbulence. Data shows that institutional inflows reached $210 million, even as broader digital asset markets faced mid-month volatility. Large investors maintained their buying pressure, indicating faith in XRP’s long-term role within cross-border payments and its growing relevance in the global digital asset ecosystem.

According to Ricardo Santos, CTO at Mansa, most of September’s sell-off originated from retail traders rather than institutional investors.

“Institutions went the other way entirely. We saw tokens move off exchanges into cold storage while whales continued to accumulate. Which is not surprising considering that we’re waiting on multiple XRP ETF decisions in Q4. You don’t move millions to cold storage if you’re planning a massive sell-off. September’s crash just gave institutions cheaper prices to build positions,” Santos explained.

Exchange net position data supports this narrative. For most of the month, XRP holders were moving assets onto exchanges — a typically bearish sign — yet this behavior largely stemmed from overleveraged retail positions being liquidated.

“Retail traders had leveraged up too much and got forced out when prices dropped. That’s where most of the selling came from,” Santos added.

Toward the end of September, more than 439 million XRP, valued at over $1.2 billion, was withdrawn from trading platforms. Such large-scale outflows suggest that investors — both retail and institutional — are opting to hold rather than sell, reducing short-term supply and reinforcing bullish sentiment heading into October.

Historical Performance of XRP

When reviewing XRP’s performance over the last decade, October stands out as one of its weakest months, with average returns of -4.5%, second only to September. This recurring seasonal weakness has typically discouraged investors from taking aggressive long positions during this period.

However, Santos believes that 2025 could represent a turning point. With the conclusion of Ripple’s prolonged legal battle with the SEC and the launch of tokenized assets on the XRP Ledger, market dynamics have shifted dramatically.

“Ripple’s legal battles with the SEC are essentially resolved. Tokenized assets are live on the XRP Ledger with real transaction volume. We have multiple ETF applications in the regulatory pipeline. Previous Octobers didn’t have these catalysts. That historical pattern happened during years of regulatory uncertainty and zero institutional infrastructure. The October pattern has held for years, but I believe this might be the year it doesn’t,” Santos emphasized.

XRP Price Outlook and Technical Levels

As of early October, XRP trades around $2.87, still confined within the descending wedge. The technical formation indicates potential for a bullish breakout, yet confirmation remains crucial. The first major resistance lies at $3.02 — a critical price point that could determine XRP’s short-term direction.

A decisive break above this resistance would likely propel XRP toward $3.61, placing it just below its all-time high of $3.66. When coupled with ongoing institutional accumulation and ETF anticipation, such a move could trigger a strong rally extending through the end of October.

“Everything depends on XRP holding current support levels. If those hold and ETF approvals start coming through, we could see momentum build toward $3-5 in October… I’m seeing $5-10 targets from various analysts for year-end, and they’re not unreasonable if institutional money flows in as expected. The volatility will be brutal at times, but this is the strongest setup I’ve seen in years,” Santos commented.

However, the potential for an ETF approval this October remains uncertain. The SEC’s recently introduced generic ETF listing rules have removed the requirement for a futures market before granting approval for spot ETFs tied to individual altcoins. As a result, some current XRP ETF applications may be withdrawn or resubmitted under new guidelines, delaying immediate approval prospects.

Should the bullish momentum fail, XRP could retrace below $2.75, with further downside risk toward $2.64. A breakdown of this scale would negate the bullish wedge setup and potentially reinforce October’s historic pattern of weakness, keeping traders cautious through the remainder of Q4.

Conclusion

XRP enters October 2025 at a pivotal juncture, supported by robust institutional inflows, improving regulatory clarity, and the looming possibility of ETF approval. Although historical data points to weakness during this month, the macro and technical landscape suggest that the narrative may finally change. If XRP sustains support above $2.75 and breaks through $3.02, momentum could accelerate toward $3.61 and beyond, potentially rewriting the token’s October legacy. Conversely, failure to maintain these key levels might reintroduce downside pressure and extend the pattern of seasonal underperformance.

Either way, October is shaping up to be one of the most decisive months for XRP in recent years — a period where sentiment, regulation, and technicals converge to define its next major move.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is October historically a weak month for XRP?

Over the past decade, XRP has averaged -4.5% returns in October, making it one of the least profitable months for the token. This pattern likely stems from broader market seasonality and past regulatory uncertainty surrounding Ripple.

What are the key resistance and support levels for XRP in October 2025?

The main resistance level is $3.02, followed by $3.61, while key support lies between $2.75 and $2.64. A breakout above $3.02 could confirm a bullish reversal.

How do institutional inflows affect XRP’s outlook?

Institutional inflows, such as the $210 million recorded in September, reflect growing confidence in XRP’s utility and future demand. These investments often signal long-term bullish sentiment, particularly when paired with ETF anticipation.

Could XRP reach new all-time highs this year?

If institutional participation continues and XRP successfully breaks resistance near $3.02 and $3.61, analysts see potential for XRP to test its $3.66 all-time high and possibly approach $5–$10 by year-end.

What happens if the ETF applications are delayed or withdrawn?

If ETF approvals are postponed due to regulatory adjustments, short-term momentum could slow, but long-term institutional demand for compliant XRP products is expected to remain strong.