Is Bitcoin Bull Run Really Over at $111K?

Introduction

Bitcoin has once again captured the spotlight as the world’s largest cryptocurrency battles heightened volatility, investor anxiety, and mixed signals from both whales and retail traders. With prices plunging to multi-week lows and speculation mounting about whether the bull market has run its course, investors are left asking one question: is the Bitcoin rally already over, or is this just another shakeout before the next leg up?

This week brings critical developments — from whale movements and CME gaps to macroeconomic signals from the Federal Reserve — all of which could determine Bitcoin’s trajectory in the weeks ahead. Here are the five key things to know in Bitcoin right now.

Key Takeaways

• A major long liquidation event has reopened $110,000 as a focal level, with a fresh CME gap offering bulls a potential silver lining.

• Bitcoin whales are under the microscope after rotating billions from BTC into ETH.

• Smaller hodlers remain in steady accumulation mode, unlike their whale counterparts.

• Some analysts now claim the entire bull market may already be over.

• The Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge, the PCE Index, will play a decisive role in shaping rate-cut expectations.

BTC Price Weakness Sparks Talk of $100,000 Retest

As August draws to a close, Bitcoin is struggling at multi-week lows. Data shows that BTC price action has been turbulent since Sunday’s flash crash, which drove BTC/USD down to $110,700 — its lowest since July 10. This sudden drop left many leveraged traders reeling.

According to CoinGlass, over $640 million in crypto long positions were liquidated in just 24 hours, highlighting the scale of the move. Traders remain split on what comes next. While some expect a bounce from old all-time highs, others anticipate deeper corrections.

Trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted an “important retest” tied to the CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market. “This is the largest CME gap we’ve seen in weeks,” he said, pointing out that such gaps often fill early in the week.

But not all are optimistic. Trader Jelle warned: “Bitcoin is still murdering leveraged traders around the range lows. If this level doesn’t hold, we could see another retest of $100,000.”

CoinGlass order-book data revealed limited bid support beneath current levels heading into Wall Street’s open, casting doubts about the strength of immediate support. Yet some analysts remain firm that $100,000 will hold as long-term support.

Whale Distribution: “Healthy” or a Warning Sign?

Bitcoin whales are once again in the spotlight after Sunday’s sudden selloff. Despite prices still hovering within 10% of all-time highs, large holders have been taking profits aggressively.

One whale entity that had held Bitcoin for seven years sold a massive tranche, dragging the market down by $4,000 in minutes. Data from Arkham, shared by Lookonchain, revealed that this whale rotated out of Bitcoin and into Ethereum:

• Deposited 22,769 BTC (≈$2.59B) to Hyperliquid for sale

• Bought 472,920 ETH (≈$2.22B) spot

• Opened a 135,265 ETH ($577M) long position

The whale still holds Bitcoin worth about $11.4 billion, boasting a staggering 1,675% profit margin.

Bitcoin enthusiast Vijay Boyapati dismissed conspiracy theories, calling the selloff part of a “healthy” monetization process: “Massive blocks of supply are being distributed into the population. This cycle is one of the greatest monetization events in history.”

Meanwhile, analyst Willy Woo noted the outsized influence of early Bitcoin whales, some of whom accumulated at prices below $10. “It takes $110K+ of new capital to absorb each BTC they sell,” he emphasized, pointing to why the market’s rise has been slower than past cycles.

Onchain data from Glassnode confirmed that as of Sunday, addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC reached a new August high, showing that whale activity remains a dominant force.

Smaller Bitcoin Hodlers Keep Accumulating

While whales take profits, smaller Bitcoin investors are doing the opposite. Onchain analytics from CryptoQuant shows that wallets holding up to 10 BTC are still in accumulation mode despite the pullback.

Contributor BorisD explained: “After reaching its ATH at 124K, Bitcoin has entered a pullback phase that may continue for a while. But smaller investors are showing resilience.”

• 10–100 BTC wallets: Showing profit-taking behavior after prices hit $118,000.

• 100–1,000 BTC wallets: Mixed signals, balancing between accumulation and distribution around $105,000.

CryptoQuant warned that distribution still dominates, but with less intensity as prices fall. Importantly, $105,000 has emerged as a critical support zone — losing it could spark fear and panic across the market.

Is the Bull Market Already Over?

Not everyone is convinced Bitcoin has more upside ahead. Some traders now argue that the bull market peaked earlier in the summer.

Trader Roman believes high-timeframe signals show that the rally has ended, citing a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern in progress. “All we need is the final shoulder for shorts to be confirmed,” he warned, declaring: “The BTC bull run is over.”

Other analysts point to declining trading volume and bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as signs of weakness. Even ZAYK Charts, citing Wyckoff analysis, suggested a potential downside target of $95,000.

While bearish calls are gaining momentum, bulls argue that such pullbacks have historically set the stage for renewed rallies — though timing remains uncertain.

U.S. Inflation and the Fed: The Macro Backdrop

Beyond crypto-specific dynamics, Bitcoin’s fate is also tied to U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index report, due Friday, is a crucial piece of data.

Markets are betting heavily on interest-rate cuts in September, with CME FedWatch Tool showing nearly a 90% probability of a 0.25% cut. This follows Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s surprising dovish pivot at Jackson Hole, which briefly boosted risk assets.

However, analysts at Mosaic Asset warn that expectations may be misplaced. “If the Fed is becoming less tolerant of inflation above 2%, a dovish tone is not guaranteed,” they wrote. Upcoming inflation and payrolls data will therefore be critical.

Meanwhile, Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday could spark volatility across risk assets, including Bitcoin, with Wall Street closely watching whether the AI chipmaker can continue its momentum.

Conclusion

Bitcoin finds itself at a pivotal moment. On one hand, whales are cashing out billions in profits, short-term traders are bracing for deeper corrections, and some analysts argue the bull market is already finished. On the other, smaller investors are still accumulating, the $105K support zone remains intact, and macro conditions could turn favorable if the Fed delivers a rate cut.

Whether Bitcoin’s rally resumes or falters will likely hinge on the balance between whale distribution, retail accumulation, and the macroeconomic backdrop in the coming weeks. For now, volatility looks set to continue — and with it, both risks and opportunities for investors.

FAQs

Why did Bitcoin drop to $110,700?

A sudden wave of liquidations worth $640 million triggered sharp volatility, compounded by whale selloffs.

Are whales selling all their Bitcoin?

Not entirely. Some whales have taken profits by rotating into Ethereum, but overall, whale distribution remains gradual and considered “healthy” for long-term market growth.

Is $100,000 the next target?

Analysts are divided. Some see $100K as strong support, while others predict further downside toward $95,000 if sentiment weakens.

What role do smaller Bitcoin holders play?

Smaller investors are still accumulating, showing confidence despite volatility. Their steady buying could help stabilize price action.

How does the Federal Reserve affect Bitcoin?

The Fed’s interest rate policies impact liquidity in global markets. A dovish stance with rate cuts could fuel demand for Bitcoin, while a hawkish tone might pressure risk assets.